Nowadays, it is common to hear that the United Nation Population Division (UNPD) is predicting the world’s population to reach approximately 10.9 billion in 2100. On the 15th of July 2020, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine projected the future global, regional, and national population. It was estimated that the world population will likely peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion, and then decline to about 8.8 billion by 2100. Such figures are in significant contrast to other estimates made in recent years. Does this raise the question of which model should we believe in?
A quick overview of the models:
Since 2010, UNPD estimated world’s population using a statistical model for fertility and life expectancy as functions of the calendar year and a fixed and simple model for migration whereas Wittgenstein Centre uses a blend of expert opinions about future fertility patterns. As compared to the two models, IHME made some major improvements. For instance, rather than assuming fixed patterns of migration, a time-series model with covariates (Socio-demographic Index, crude population growth rate, and deaths from war and natural disasters) is fitted to national net migration rates. IHME models also take into account uncertainty distributions for each country and territory in each year and traced the changes in age structure expected and so on.
With these changes, the estimated results differ significantly in these models.
The main difference from these models is the trend from 2070 onwards. As mentioned above, IHME model suggests that the world population peaks in 2064 and decline afterwards whereas UNPD models suggested that by 2100, the world population will reach approximately 10.9 billion.
IHME suggests that the two main reasons for population shrinkage are:
- Progress in female educational attainment
- Progress in public access to contraception
As more women are getting more education, they get to involve in jobs with a better prospect and take up more significant roles. This leads to them choosing to have fewer children. Together with better access to contraception and effective birth control measures, the fertility rate begins to slow down. When the total fertility rate (TFR) is lower than the replacement level of 2.1, the global population starts to shrink.
TFR is the average number of children that a woman gives birth to over her lifetime.
Replacement level of 2.1 means that a woman needs to give birth to at least 2.1 babies in order to sustain population levels.
Problems caused by the change in global population
Despite reasonable assumptions and very powerful statistical analysis methods being used in the abovementioned models, uncertainties lie within the estimates. 2 billion population differences in estimations can lead to many different outcomes. The main purpose of modelling the future global, regional, and national population is to let us understand the potential patterns and be prepared for the possible changes.
If the IHME forecast is accurate, and the world’s population declines to 8.8 million in 2100, the insufficient workforce becomes the main problem, especially in low-end jobs. This will lead to less output from all industries, resources underused, fewer business activities, and a decrease in country GDP. Countries with a low fertility rate will also have problems associated with the ageing population. The government collects less tax but more elderly to take care of, thus the taxpayers will then have to pay higher taxes. Undoubtful, this will increase their burdens and thus lead to more social issues.
However, what if UNPD forecast turns out to be true?
If the population continues to grow, there will be problems, such as increased demand for food, fresh water, and natural resources. Higher demand for food requires more manpower and land to produce more food. Besides, countries with relentless population explosion face increasing difficulties to supply water, food, energy, and housing to their growing populations, which will have major repercussions for public health, security measures, and economic growth. Furthermore, some environmental problems associated with overpopulation include rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, global warming, and pollution.
Regardless of the scenarios, each of them comes with a unique set of economic and social challenges, and countries around the world need to find ways to face these challenges.
How can we prepare ourselves for these potential trends?
The key to tackle these problems is to make our solutions flexible and robust to uncertainties. To deal with uncertainties in future world’s population, technology plays an important role in ensuring the long-term supply of our basic needs: food, water, clothing, shelter, sanitation, education, and healthcare.
Technology like robotics and artificial intelligence can help to increase productivity and at the same time reducing cost in manufacturing and production lines. Besides, big data and analytics can be used across supply chains and make production line “smart” so that the processes are optimised based on the demand and thus prevent or reduce wastage. Production quality and quantity in all industries can easily be controlled with relevant data and automated process. Moreover, tasks that cannot be done due to human physical limitation can be overcome by the adoption of technology in the process. Thus, it is clear that technology can continue to improve our lives in the future.
Take the food supply as an example. Referring to the models above, questions arose include “Can we feed everyone in the overpopulated world?” and “In the underpopulated and ageing world, do we have enough workforce to produce food that can feed everyone?” Automation farming helps overcome challenges arise from changing the world’s population, shortages of farm labour, and changing consumer preferences. By automating traditional farming processes, productivity in the farm increases and farmers can have better control in the quantity and quality of their produce. Furthermore, produce reaches customer and consumers faster, fresher and more sustainably. Today, we are still at the early stage of automation farming. However, experts believe that technology can offer a path towards sustainable and more efficient agriculture by advancements of technologies, production systems, and software.
It is time to adopt technology in our lives
In conclusion, we can treat the world’s population forecast as a reference and start adopting a solution that is the most robust to uncertainties. Not only in the food supply, but the benefit of technology in all industries is also monumental. Malaysia should continue putting in more effort in realising 4th industrial revolution (4IR) because technology moves at breakneck speed and those who do not keep up with its pace will be eliminated eventually. It is a nationwide effort in driving digitalisation and automation in all sectors and we should all be with the government to embrace 4IR in Malaysia. Should you want to know more about Malaysia’s policy on 4IR, Industry 4WRD by Ministry of International trade and industry is a good starting material.
Written by Tan Chen Horng, Intern at 27 Advisory. He is currently pursuing his degree in Chemical Engineering at Imperial College London and has recently completed his year abroad programme at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He proactively looks for solutions every time he encounters problems and enjoys working in fast-paced working environments as he believes that reasonable amounts of stress help with self-development. During his free time, he plays badminton, volleyball and reads books related to governance, economics and personal development. Horng aims to contribute to society in any possible way. One of his personal goals is to help drive the Malaysian economy as well as uplift the living standards of the rakyat, especially the lower-income community. Given the opportunity, he hopes to bring his contributions beyond the national level to have an impact on both regionally and globally. As he always says, ‘The sky’s the limit’.
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